Does the padel bubble really exist?

France now has 4,000 padel courts, up 118% in three years, according to a report published by the French Tennis Federation (FFT) in December 2025. Is that enough to call it a bubble? Not on its own. It neither proves that the market is saturated nor that a new club will be profitable everywhere.

The decisive question is local: how many regular players can a club reach, and why would they choose one club over another?

National figures, local realities

In November 2025, the FFT estimated that there were 850,000 people playing padel, including 272,000 registered members. These figures point to considerable enthusiasm, but they don’t tell us how often those people play, where they live, or how much they’re willing to pay for a game. National participation figures are therefore not enough to assess the paying demand around a particular site.

Facilities are also unevenly distributed. FFT data from the end of August 2025 records 493 courts in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, or around 10,600 people per court, compared with 333 courts and around 37,400 people per court in Île-de-France. These ratios illustrate a contrast, but they don’t prove saturation in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur or a profitable opportunity in Île-de-France: on their own, they don’t describe playing habits, travel distances or actual competition.

The 15-minute test

Imagine three or four clubs within 15 minutes of one another. This is not a claim about what is happening everywhere; it’s a way to frame the question of competition. If the options are close by, what will make players choose one club over its neighbours?

Price matters, but it doesn’t determine the choice on its own. The quality of the facilities, the welcome, events, how easy it is to find playing partners, or a welcoming community may also count. Their impact still needs to be checked at each club: activities can encourage loyalty, but their cost and organisation matter too. A promotion can fill a time slot without improving its margin.

To understand what is really happening, a club can look at court occupancy by time slot, whether players return after their first booking, how often they play, and how promotions affect margins. These are management questions, not outcomes that can be assumed.

Spain: insight, not a prediction

The International Padel Federation counted nearly 4,500 clubs and facilities and around 17,000 courts in Spain for 2024. A PwC–Playtomic report published in 2026 puts the figure at 17,400 courts and reports 1.9% growth in the number of courts in 2025. Its authors highlight occupancy, management, community and player retention in a maturing market. This perspective sheds light on potential challenges in a market with more facilities; it does not prove saturation, and Spain’s trajectory does not automatically predict France’s.

Viability is decided club by club

The available data does not prove that there is a bubble in France. But overall growth doesn’t guarantee that every project will succeed either. As local supply increases, player retention and customer experience may become more important. Management tools can help track bookings and organise activities; they can’t replace sufficient demand or a viable operation.

Ultimately, the right question is not just “how many courts?” but “for which players, how often, and what reason do they have to come back?”